Way too late.
Two to three years in the hole, the only way Windows Phone can win the market now is to make a product that is leaps and bounds better than what’s out there. They need something that’s an iPhone-in-2007 type product. The product they have, while good, isn’t that.
It’s not enough to be better. (And we can argue as to whether iOS or Android or Windows Phone is better.) You need to present a product so good that people have to buy it. Windows Phone isn’t close to being that. I’m sorry, but it’s just not.
And one other big reason for that is something else Kindel oddly downplays: apps. Even if you think Windows Phone is better than iOS or Android right now, you’re unlikely to buy it because all of your favorite apps are available on those competing platforms and very few are available for Windows Phone.
MG Siegler responds to Charlie Kindel and nails it when he says that one of the key reasons Windows Phone has not done well is that it was late to the market.
iPhone has an First Mover advantage.
Early Mover or First Mover Advantage is the advantage gained by the initial occupant of a market segment. This advantage may stem from the fact that the first entrant can gain control of resources that followers may not be able to match.
FMA is the sometimes insurmountable advantage gained by the initial or “first-moving” significant occupant of a new market segment. This advantage may stem from the fact that the first entrant can gain control of resources that followers may not be able to match. Originally made apparent by the ever booming Internet phenomenon, it has recently been on the decline due to the recent economic situation. It is important to note that the first-mover advantage refers to the first significant company to move into a market, not merely the first company. In order for a company to try and become a first-mover that company needs to figure out if the overall rewards outweigh the beginning/underlying risks. Sometimes first-movers are rewarded with huge profit margins and a monopoly like status.
This gets complicated by Switching costs and buyer's choice under uncertainty also come into play when you have FMA.
Switching costs, late entrants must invest extra resources to attract customers away from the first-mover firm. Buyer choice under uncertainty, buyers may rationally stick with the first brand they encounter that performs the job satisfactorily. For individual customers benefits of finding a superior brand are seldom great enough to justify the additional search costs that must be incurred. Switching costs play a huge role in where, what, and why consumers buy what they buy. Users, over time, grow accustomed to a certain product and its functions, as well as the company that produces them products. Once a consumer is comfortable and set in their ways they apply a certain cost, which is usually fairly steep, to switching to other similar products.